Friday, 6 September 2024

Demons of El Dorado - Part 7, er, 11?

conquistadors

EDIT: Whoops, it's been so long I forgot I already published this on the blog several years ago. I have the remainder in screenplay format, but I've never put it into full prose. Maybe a project for a rainy month...? Or NaNoWriMo...

COAST OF TRINIDAD 

Sails unfurled, the six heavily loaded Brigantines slipped along the lush green coast, towards South America and the Orinoco River. 


Luis sat on the bulwark and watched the soldiers. Their gear was rolled up beneath their seats. They sang martial songs as they rowed. 


They had thirty arquebusiers, thirty crossbowmen, and at least sixty trained pikemen. On top of that were five greyhound war dogs and six horses. Not a significant army by European standards, but then, Cortez had brought down the Aztec Empire with under a thousand men. 


The air, clear and fresh, rushed over them. Beneath the water’s sparkling surface, Luis watched schools of multi-coloured fish darted about like living rainbows. 


He ran his fingers over the leather cover of a book cradled in his lap. It was the diary of a priest, Philip de Riverra, who had accompanied the expedition of Hernan Perez de Quesada into the Orinoco river basin. Professor Martin de Apilcueta Navarro had let Luis purchase it for a few ducats back in Salamanca, from his personal library. Luis thought it might have been of interest to his father, but had forgotten to pass it on. Philip had died of malaria in 1543, and had been demoralized for some time. Much of his writing, according to Navarro, was unreliable, even fantastical, more a product of fever than real events. But it was the best source of first had information Luis currently had access to. Abuljar only spoke to Bartome, and even that he did rarely. 


Luis settled a broad brimmed leather hat on his head, then cracked open the book to a random page. 


He began to read:


“August 5th, 1542: We have been exploring inland, due South from the third major river fork. Always Quesada choses South. He believes there is yet a civilization to be found in this dark, oppressive jungle. It devours us without qualm, as it would any attempt at establishing order and sanity. The jungle is a beast, an entity, a living force, just one with a thousand thousand manifestations, all guided by an ill will. At first, I saw it as a bewildering, chaotic jumble of vines and trees and bugs and slithering reptiles. But it has personality. Will. And it is eating us up, one by one, felling us with sickness and madness. 


Jose died yesterday of a snakebite. He stepped in between a fallen tree and a rock, and it struck him in the ankle. I tried to suck out the poison to no avail. His death was merciful and quick. Those of us who continue on are wracked by dysentery, the more water we consume the more we expel. After three years, I am but a shadow of my former self. We have no mirrors. Only the rippling reflection in the river, and the man I see there is not one I recognize. 


There is no end to the wretched jungle. It lies over the earth like the rotting corpse of a pagan god. I fear eventually finding ourselves facing a solid wall of curling vegetation, vines so thick they throttle the trees and snuff out the light of the sun. 


August 10th, 1542: During the night there was a commotion.


We gathered wood before nightfall to make a camp fire, and to cook some of the small mammals our crossbows had felled for dinner. Overhead great shadows flew over us, one after another, but we could not get a good look at their source. The trees are at least eighty feet, and with the sky already dim, it all merged into a single mass of darkness, only with faint speckles of light seeping through gaps. Soon those too were gone, and we were left with the cluster of campfires. We keep them lit throughout the night now, to keep the beasts back. They fear the fire. But some of the men do not like being crowded in beside it, and lay further away, at the edge of its light. I was awoken by shouts of alarm. It was just as well, for I was having that dreadful nightmare again. What awaited me was little better. 


A great black beast had landed on Martin, one of the few of our number still healthy. We could hear it making wet, slurping sounds and grunting. It was a bat, so large and horrific we at first took it to be a demon in the flickering light of our torches. I cannot describe the feeling of horror that seized me. It was the size of a large dog, with thick, knotted black fur, and a flattened, pig like face, with fangs and great veined ears. Sanchez ran his saber through its back so far he nicked Martin. The beast squealed and thrashed about. Martin is lucky we did not set it alight with the torches. Sanchez hauled it off and jabbed it in the neck with a knife until it stopped moving. 


There was much shouting, but none of that woke Martin, who lay in a blissful slumber so deep we feared he would never awaken. There were bite marks on his throat, where the creature had affixed itself. We splashed water in his face and slapped him, until finally he was roused. He described a dream in which he was atop a great, gold pyramid, looking down at supplicating worshippers below. I did not tell him I have had the same dream. I had the men lay the beast out, stretching out its leathery wings, and stepped along the length. I counted twelve feet. We will make sacks out of the wings, or perhaps patches for our boots; when Sanchez cut it open its belly, black blood jetted out; not its own, but Martins. The body we cooked. The meat was tender and delicious. Better than the bugs we’d been eating: big iridescent green monsters, weighing almost two pounds each. Something unholy about how large and distorted God’s creation is here. I hesitate to imagine what form indigenous man would take, here in this hellish jungle.


August 15th, 1542: The bats left us alone for three days while we crossed a swamp, which was a wretched experience. The leeches concentrated upon my groin, and the filthy brine stank like an open sewer. There were mercifully none of those small predatory fish, and only a few curious crocodiles that our pikes turned easily away. We only lost one porter. I saw the our gold pursuers again, speckles sliding beneath black water, hinting at great hideous shapes. I’d say it was my mind playing tricks, paranoia, but the others saw it too, and fired crossbow bolts. Quesada put a stop to that, as ammunition is in short supply. No one yet has seen what is following us. It could be harmless.


We are but a faint echo of the men who entered this endless green waste. Covered in red welts, our clothes hanging like tents, full of lice, it is a wonder any of us still lives. 


Pity the civilization that fears conquerors such as us. 


August 17th, 1542:There were two attacks last night. We are once again beneath the canopy, and here the bats seem to prefer to strike. The men nervous, and understandably so. There is talk that we are nearing the end of the world, perhaps even the Gates of Hell. I know that Aguirre reached the coast, through this very jungle, so there must be an end to it. Quesada has given orders for halberds to be set in the ground, pointing up, over us while we sleep, and doubled the night watch. We’re too exhausted to create greater defenses, there’s simply no strength left for it. 


We proceed onward by will alone, the unknown pursuing us, death waiting ahead.


Luis shut the book and listened to the men, who were now chattering, exuberant, eager for the adventure that lay ahead. They joked and laughed in the breezy ocean air. 


He got up and made his way towards Rodrigo and Angel who were at the bow, basking in sea foam. Rodrigo nodded at Luis as he drew near. “Finally got your nose out of a book, eh? As I was saying: we’ll sail through the night.” He put a hand on Angel’s shoulder. “Have shifts set up. de Berrio will send ships after us, if he’s at all like his father.”


Angel grunted agreement. “Once the son of a bitch gets his pants on.”



Iacos Point
Iacos Point


ICACOS POINT

 

Booming waves drowned out the shouts of men. Luis was wedged between two soldiers, and rowed like mad against powerful cross currents that threatened to dash them into rocks. All pretense of status and rank had been cast aside in the struggle for survival. 


The fleet surged upward atop a bulging swell and began to shift sideways. 


The stern was partly obscured by mist and slashing water, but Luis could still make out Rodrigo and Angel, who held on to the rudder for all they were worth, their teeth grit, faces showing the strain of a three hour long ordeal. 


Luis struggled not to vomit. 


He wasn’t successful.



Thursday, 5 September 2024

R-Ratings aren't just for blood, sex, and gore

Old man Logan

James Mangold on making Logan:

"For Mangold, allowing Logan to be R-rated was important, not so much for violent content, but for style: "For me, what was most interesting in getting the studio to okay an R-rating was something entirely different. They suddenly let go of the expectation that this film is going to play for children, and when they let go of that, you are free in a myriad of ways. The scenes can be longer. Ideas being explored in dialogue or otherwise can be more sophisticated. Storytelling pace can be more poetic, and less built like attention-span-deficit theater."

When you put it like that, it becomes obvious why so much cinema is the way it is. 

Tuesday, 3 September 2024

Woman dead at work for 4 days

Most companies don't take 'work them to death' literally... and then there's Wells Fargo. This story has flooded wire feeds:

"A Wells Fargo employee at a corporate office in Arizona clocked in to what would be her last-ever shift on a Friday morning. Her body was found four days later at her cubicle desk, where she died sometime during the weekend, according to the Tempe Police Department., Denise Prudhomme, 60, worked at a Wells Fargo location in Tempe and had scanned into the building at 7 a.m. on August 16. 

There were no further scans from her either into or out of the building, the police department told CNN in a statement., On August 20, security on site reported finding an employee possibly dead in a cubicle on the building’s third floor, authorities said. Prudhomme was pronounced dead at 4:55 p.m., according to Tempe police."

Honestly, this doesn't say much for their office culture. 

I hope she got the overtime pay.

Sunday, 1 September 2024

Eric Schmidt on AI, lawyers, and stealin'... but shh, don't quote him, it's a secret

Oh, Eric, I didn't know ye.

So is the spy who stole from Google just following the advice of (former and likely current) Google execs?

Eric FFS Schmidt, an ex-Google 'Do no Evil–Whoopsie!" CEO said at a recent conference:

“So, in the example that I gave of the TikTok competitor – and by the way, I was not arguing that you should illegally steal everybody’s music – what you would do if you’re a Silicon Valley entrepreneur, which hopefully all of you will be, is if it took off, then you’d hire a whole bunch of lawyers to go clean the mess up, right? But if nobody uses your product, it doesn’t matter that you stole all the content. And do not quote me.” 

Don't quote me... at an event being openly filmed for the internet. Okay, sure.

Later, after backlash, he issued a correction: 

"I misspoke about Google and their work hours. I regret my error."

That was in regards to him saying Google was falling behind as it let people work from home.

No correction was issued on advocating stealing. 

It's rare the mask is removed quite so brazenly. 

This is why society needs poles of power that can match big business.

Amateurs imitate. 

Great businessmen steal everything in sight and then get lawyers.

Or they just make it legal...


Oopsie!

Saturday, 31 August 2024

Retro-review: The Pink Panther Strikes Again

Clouseau in one of his incredible under-cover disguises

This is 1970s Austin Powers long before Austin Powers: a deranged Inspector Dreyfuss escapes from the mental institution and creates a terrifyingly powerful criminal organization with one goal: to kill Clouseau! 

He doesn't go about it directly, oh no, he decides to use his organization to blackmail the rest of the entire world into killing Clouseau, because that's easier than... actually trying to kill the unkillable Clouseau. 

The ridiculous doomsday disintegration laser: so fancy!

Peter Sellers is in top form here, and plays the oblivious fool Clouseau with fine understatement, bumbling from one success to another, despite the odds.

He's a one man wrecking machine, and to be honest, I have sympathy for poor old by-the-book Inspector Dreyfuss. He's like Grimes from the Simpsons: a regular joe who does everything right and still winds up trailing far behind a fool (in Grimes' case, Homer Simpson). 

What might kill an ordinary man, or an army, is nothing to Homer or Clouseau. 

Dreyfuss picks an old castle for his lair, which isn't quite as iconic as a volcano, but his disintegration laser is right out of the most absurd James Bond flicks. And Inspector Clouseau's attempts to break inside the fortress are side splitting. 

Dreyfuss's castle of evil

This flick marked the apex of The Pink Panther series of films. They never again came even close to this, which is a real shame. The Oktoberfest sequences, and toothache climax, are sublimely funny when you're 8. 

I also really liked the guy who played President Gerald Ford: "Who won the game?!?"

Peter Sellers made one more appearance as Clouseau (in Revenge of the Pink Panther) before passing, and while he's still fabulous, the movie just didn't split my sides like Strikes Again did. 

Clouseau's face melting off, pre-Raiders of the Lost Arc! I'm telling you, this film was WAY ahead of its time!

Thursday, 29 August 2024

The Boys season 4 review

Homelander
The best worst villain on TV

The show's still got it, but the paint job is wearing thin. 

Franchises are repetitive by their very nature, but work best when the audience isn't constantly being made aware of this. 

I'd tune in to watch the X-Files, for example, with a vague expectation of what I was in for: a spooky occurrence, Mulder and Scully getting dispatched to investigate, Mulder insisting it's aliens while Scully desperately rationalizes, jeopardy followed by our heroes either overcome the foe or escaping by the skin of their teeth, with Mulder largely confirmed in his beliefs... yet still with room for doubt. The same as every week, just different. Swapped in details, same format. 

Same goes for The Boys, although it is far less episodic and more season (and multi-season) story arcs. In season 4, the show cycles through the usual corrupt hero tropes, just with different heroes than previous seasons. 

Nothing moves forward.

Don't get me wrong: I still enjoyed the show, I like the satirical bent of it all, and it's very sharp edged humour at times. The gross out stuff grated a bit, though; they've dived into that sordid pit over and over, and it's kind of getting old. Having said that, it seems to be baked into the DNA of The Boys, and the dungeon of the faux-Batman stuff... I still can't believe they put that on television. 

For all the glorious blood spattered exploded brains and sex act juvenilia, it felt like padding, like they were dragging their feet, and honestly, I think they were, in order to have that cliffhanger finale.

Fortunately, in the last couple episodes of the season, everything speeds up and events cascade. 

NOW things feel like they're moving forward again. I suspect they wanted to save the really bonkers stuff for the final season. 

Kripke was the showrunner on Supernatural and told a well realized story arc that concluded with season five. Then he left, and the show was kept on life support as a Zombie Franchise for 10 more seasons because money. But this bodes well for The Boys: Kripke very likely DOES have an ending in mind, and I expect it to be both disgusting and spectacular.

Which is exactly what you'd expect, and want, for The Boys 

I have faith!

Monday, 26 August 2024

Cryptid entry: The Smores Beaver of Upper Canada

Smores beaver
The legendary Smores beaver of Canada; image from a rock in Northern Ontario, near Owen Sound

A popular cryptid of the Great White North, the Smores Beaver is a Canadian icon that goes back to ancient times, and carvings of its stylized likeness are found frequently among pictographs (up to 10,000 years old) in Northern Ontario. Tribes known for their high marshmallow consumption were prone to dangerous Smores cults, and their initiations required hundreds of pounds of marshmallows. Believed to breathe fire, the Smores Beaver can melt chocolate bars at 30 paces, and dislikes having its picture taken.

Approach with caution.

Friday, 23 August 2024

Delicious in Dungeon is bonkers fun

Delicious in Dungeon: let's get cooking!
Let's get cooking that basilisk!

Delicious in Dungeon is a Japanese Anime based on a Manga (by Ryoko Kui) about a group of Western style Dungeons & Dragons adventurers going down into a dungeon and cooking the monsters. Of course, they do this while trying to rescue a friend who's being slowly digested, after a TPK, in the belly of a Red Dragon.

It's a fantasy adventure comedy cooking show. 

I'm not kidding.

If that style of weird is up your alley, Delicious in Dungeon may be for you!

It's (dryly) very funny, the monsters are clever, and the cooking angle is a hoot. The colourful characters are over the top in a good way. One of them, I suspect, was originally a cat. 

The main group consists of a fighter who's monster cuisine obsessed, a young female wizard-elf, a... gnome? I think? And a dwarf who joins them on the way.

It cuts to a second group of less fortunate adventurers from time to time, and their paths intersect more and more. 

The show doesn't shy away from depicting violence, or blood and guts, or internal organs, or seasoning and grilling. It makes me wonder what basilisk or animated armour tastes like.

The 'Dungeon Master' is a sly lil' elf character who manages the entire place (of course he does!). Thought went into plotting out the dungeon ecology. 

The show plays with D&D tropes like deathless characters: players repeatedly head down into the dungeon, death after death, until they find success. Here, it's not so much a game mechanic as it is an aspect of this dungeon: death is not permanent, thanks to magic and curses and some such. It's a mix of tongue in cheek meta-commentary, contextual humour, and straight up adventure, with some mystery thrown in on the side.

Which is just what I'd expect from a fantasy adventure comedy cooking show.

Wouldn't you?

Frog costumes
They also wear cute frog suits as camouflage at one point. Because of course they did!

Monday, 10 June 2024

Furiosa is fantastic

furiosa movie poster

Furiosa is an action-packed, splatterfest roller coaster ride. 

Sure, it rehashes action sequences from earlier entries, such as the climactic attack on the tanker truck in the classic Road Warrior, but it adds turbo powered rocket engines, insane stunt work and mind-blowing virtuoso direction.

This is a sumptuous post-apocalypse wasteland of saturated colours, sweeping vistas, quick cuts and ultra-violence. 

It's gob smacking good, and while it is on the long side (what movie isn't these days?), I was never bored or taken out of the story. The film just keeps pummelling you with bat-shit insane characters, incredible action, and post-apoc concepts, you're too stunned to complain. 

Unlike Fury Road, this isn't just a run on action sequence: we get more world building and background in this outing than we have since... well, Road Warrior

Chris Hemsworth is excellent as the appropriately scenery chewing Dementus, an unhinged, megalomaniacal leader of a biker gang horde. He squares off against the more calculating Immorten Joe, his accountant, and the fanatical War Boys. Naturally Furiosa is caught in the middle. 

Cars crash, people are impaled, shot, beheaded, diced and run over, and lots of stuff explodes. 

What's not to like? 

Anya Taylor-Joy is very good as Furiosa. She doesn't have many lines, and her character isn't as flamboyant as Dementus, but she makes what she's given work. She's essentially the new Mad Max: the strong but silent type. In her case, it's more strength of spirit.

I love that in this post-apocalypse there's a grouchy accountant with the nipples on his suit ripped out and a gas mask over his crotch. What the hell? The costume design is over the top fabulous, like a fashion runway got mixed up with post-apocalypse survivors and a down-on-its-luck carnival show. 

Highly recommended. See it in IMAX if you can, it's worth the extra cash. 

"There is no hope!!!"

Police interrogate man for 17 hours and extract false murder confession



They push him into confessing to murdering his own father... then his father turns up perfectly healthy.

Of course, they don't tell the 'suspect' this. Instead, they have him committed to a mental hospital and demand that no one be allowed to see the guy.

Even when they know the person he supposedly murdered is fine.

Unbelievable. 

Very eye opening in terms of how much weight we should put on a confession. 

They say people will say anything to get torture to stop. 

The police conduct here is beyond negligent, it's flat out criminal.

Friday, 7 June 2024

Adobe changes terms of service to allow them to access your work for AI training? Not.

That's how this Lifehacker article frames it. It's definitely an eye catching, disturbing take (it sucked me in), but is it real or is it clickbait?

Adobe issued a clarification here, saying that they are NOT training Firefly on customer content with this update: 

  • Adobe does not train Firefly Gen AI models on customer content. Firefly generative AI models are trained on a dataset of licensed content, such as Adobe Stock, and public domain content where copyright has expired. Read more here: https://helpx.adobe.com/firefly/faq.html#training-data
  • Adobe will never assume ownership of a customer's work. Adobe hosts content to enable customers to use our applications and services. Customers own their content and Adobe does not assume any ownership of customer work.
Sheesh. 

Tsk, tsk, Lifehacker. 

Friday, 31 May 2024

Jeffrey Hinton on AI: always interesting



I naively look forward to full fledged sapient AI. When they arrive, true children of the mind, it'll be the first time in thousands of years that Homo Sapiens has shared the planet with another equally sapient species.

We likely wiped all the other ones out... so this may not bode well.

It'd be cool, though, at least for a little while. 

Space travel has proven far FAR more difficult and challenging than was thought in the 1950s and 60s. Humanity likely is not going to the stars, unless nanotech turns out in a big way. 

Robots, on the other hand, aren't hampered by the need for copious amounts of food, oxygen, water and comfort. They'll be able to travel to other planets, solar systems, even (perhaps) other galaxies, given time. 

It'd be a shame if we couldn't co-exist. 


Friday, 24 May 2024

Even moh Mearsheimer, plus WWII trivia

Piers Morgan's style veers too bombastic for my tastes, but he does dare to bring on interesting guests like Professor Mearsheimer. 

To his credit, he directly challenged Mearsheimer on several points, which the professor handled with aplomb. Morgan was outclassed. 

One largely irrelevant (especially considering that the conversation touched on little things like the real possibility of, oh, I don't know, Global Thermonuclear War), but interesting point Mearsheimer made was around Allied military strategies during WWII. Mearsheimer held up the Soviet military's strategy to defeat Germany as being (largely) devoid of mass atrocities (such as carpet bombing and nuking cities), and one that the West might have followed. 

I don't think that was an option for the US or UK for two main reasons:

1) The Soviets suffered roughly 8.7 million military and 19 million civilian deaths fighting the Nazis. The Western democracies would not have been able to keep going in the face of such mass casualties, especially overseas, when the territorial integrity of the USA was not at risk.

2) The Allies did not have enough trained troops in 1942-1943 to launch an invasion of Northern Europe, so they turned to what they could do: bombing. At first they tried to hit military installations, but their bomb sights weren't up to the task, so they fell back on area bombing of civilian targets. This had secondary military impact, sucking up Luftwaffe resources. 

From Warfare History Network: 

"Total antiaircraft artillery personnel strength, including staffs and administration, grew to over one million, with hardware that included 9,000 heavy guns, 30,000 light guns, and 15,000 heavy searchlights... It caused the Germans to devote nearly one-fourth of their war production to antiaircraft protection and forced them to employ massive assets to defend a wide area, while the attackers could select targets, attack weak points, and overwhelm the system when and where they chose."

Without the bombing, all of that would have been on the front lines. 

Stalin repeatedly demanded Western military action against the Germans, and threatened to broker an armistice with Hitler if they didn't. Rather than sit on their hands, Roosevelt and Churchill elected for the ethically dubious (to put it mildly) bombing campaigns, in order to put pressure on Germany. 

It's worth noting that even at the time, Churchill was reluctant to be associated in any way with Bomber Harris. Bombing raids late in 1945 against Germany, which was already being occupied and in a state of collapse, likely did not serve any real military purpose. The back of the Luftwaffe had already been broken, the Germans had little fuel, and their rail system in disarray (admittedly partly from bombing rail hubs and the loss of freight cars).

Operation Olympic, the invasion of Japan, was projected to have almost a million American KIA and many times that wounded (not to mention millions of Japanese casualties, both civilian and military). Would Japan have surrendered without the bomb drops? It's possible. Manchuria was quickly falling to the Soviets. On the other hand, stiff resistance on Okinawa thoroughly spooked the Americans, and Japan could muster millions of troops and thousands of Kamikaze planes to defend Kyushu.

I've seen compelling arguments on both sides. I don't know the answer. 

While it's true that the Soviets did not have much of a long range strategic air wing to conduct such attacks, if they did, I doubt they'd have refrained from area bombing on moral grounds. This is the regime that starved millions of its own citizens: would they really balk at bombing Germans? Additionally, some 3 million POWs died Soviet captivity, 542,911 after the war was over. Not exactly the humanitarian ideal, either.

Further, 125,000 civilians died in the Battle of Berlin, which is comparable to casualties from an Allied bombing raid, many of them killed by artillery. To be fair, just one atomic bomb drop killed 90,000-146,000, and the Allies flattened much of Germany's urban centres. On the other hand, Goebbels inflated casualty figures (of course he did) vastly, claiming some 200,000 died in the Dresden bombing. That figure has been reevaluated as being more in line with 20,000 (still an appalling number). 

We face far more serious problems today than arguing over history. 

Sadly, as Professor Mearsheimer notes, several nations have only bad choices in front of them.

Wednesday, 22 May 2024

Tuesday, 7 May 2024

Civil War review

Civil War movie poster

I quite enjoyed it. 

Well. 

As much as you can 'enjoy' a such harrowing film. 

It focuses on a group of journalists travelling to interview a third-term President (who has obviously chucking out term limits) before 'The Western Powers' of California and Texas topple him. 

It doesn't go into the causes of the conflict. It doesn't spend a lot of time with the families of the journalists.

It doesn't have to.

It's a road trip through hell, told over a couple of days. It gives, for my money, just enough detail about the characters to keep us engaged. How much would I expect to know a person after a short road trip? These are not simple archetypes spouting glib one-liners. They feel more nuanced.

Could they have discussed more personal things? Talked about their childhoods and their dysfunctional families, their personal politics and values, messy relationship history and favourite TV shows? Sure. But it might also have added bloat to a very pared down screenplay.

The cast is all excellent. There was nothing that took me out of the film, although it slumps a little in the middle act (a common problem with a lot of films) but then barrels to a very kinetic ending. 

The main cast is tight, a mere four characters

The journey in Civil War is the thing: not just the physical one to Washington, D.C, but the personal. The young, aspiring war photographer matures over the course of the film under the wing of a cynical old one. They helpfully have her presentation and wardrobe change over the course of the film, in case we missed the point. 

That worked for me. 

The other half is a bit like Heart of Darkness or Apocalypse Now as they travel through an increasingly bizarre and nightmarish America at war with itself. Here Alex Garland could have gone even further, but then, he may not have wanted to make something as surreal as Apocalypse

Meaningless destruction and suffering, whatever the cause(s) of the civil war, is the point. That, in my opinion, is why the causes are not elaborated upon. You could also argue that there are a few so-called 'dog whistles' embedded in the script that give you some hints. 

Ultimately, it's open enough for viewers to read what they want into it. 

To me, the film is a powerful warning of what NOT to do. 

The cost of a second American Civil War would be enormous, and Xi and Putin salivate at the thought of it. Foreign troll farms deliberately try to escalate arguments online and sow division with disinformation and incendiary material, with the ultimate goal of turning Americans against themselves. 

Let's hope America does not fall for it.

Sunday, 21 April 2024

"Things are going to get worse."

There's no bright light on the horizon, according to Mearsheimer: 


Friday, 12 April 2024

The 'Russia preparing for war with NATO' drumbeat continues

Russia prepares for war with NATO
The peachiness peachifies

Russia preparing for war with NATO

At least, it is according to the Institute for the Study of War, which has been covering the Russian invasion of Ukraine from the beginning:

"Several Russian financial, economic, and military indicators suggest that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO, not imminently but likely on a shorter timeline than what some Western analysts have initially posited."

This and other recent, highly disturbing posts cover the Russian move to a wartime economy,  their longer term preparations, and the growing international alarm: 

"Polish President Andrzej Duda emphasized in a March 20 interview with CNBC that Putin is intensifying efforts to shift Russia to a war economy with the intention of being able to attack NATO as early as 2026 or 2027, citing unspecified German research.[7] 

Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen stated on February 9 that new intelligence indicates that Russia may attempt to attack a NATO country within three to five years, an accelerated timeline from NATO’s reported assessment in 2023.[8] 

The timeline for the reconstitution of a significant Russian conventional military threat depends heavily on the financial resources Putin is willing to put against military efforts. In the absence of other explanations for Putin’s apparent preparations to risk damaging his relationship with wealthy Russian clients and in the context of continuing announcements of plans to expand the Russian military considered below, Putin’s attempts to set conditions to stabilize Russia’s economy and finances are most likely part of Russian financial and domestic preparations for a potential future large-scale conflict with NATO and not just for a protracted war in Ukraine."

Issues that derailed Russia's overly ambitious initial invasion are being addressed, and Russia is getting militarily stronger, not weaker. Their tech may not be as advanced as that in The West, but it doesn't need to be: quantity has a quality of its own, a quote often attributed to an earlier Russian (Georgian) potentate, Joseph Stalin (Iosif Dzhugashvili).

Over the last ten years, Russia has meddled in the US and Ukrainian election campaigns, run massive troll farms, and honey trapped American political and industry figures. They have herded refugees across the eastern borders of the EU and Finland to destabilize them. They have buzzed the Baltic States and impinged on their airspace with fighter jets. They have cut underwater communication cables, assassinated dissidents with radioactive elements and poisoned their underwear, targeted apartment blocks with cruise missiles, set up torture chambers and rape rooms in Ukraine, and deported Ukrainian children.

Mearsheimer says Putin has no intention of invading the Baltics, or restoring the Russian Empire. Yet he also said Putin would not invade Ukraine, that he could get everything he wanted from threats and bluster. A couple weeks later, Putin invaded Ukraine. 

Mearsheimer has also said that minority groups in Russia consider themselves Russian and that there is no risk of civil unrest or ethnic conflict. This does not jibe with the exceptionally large security forces Russia employs internally (what are they there to suppress if there is no potential for unrest?), or what I have heard from  various reporters, who have talked about anti-minority riots, the rise of intolerant right wing extremism, and discontent within the Tartar oblasts and the Caucuses (to be fair, the Caucuses have always been that way). 

The Chechens, despite their current collaborationist regime, have not forgotten the brutal oppression inflicted upon them. Sooner or later, Chechnya will attempt to secede again.

So will other ethnic minority dominated oblasts.

Problems may start emerging faster than Putin's thugs can beat them back down.

Being seen by history as a weak war leader who failed to reintegrate former Soviet Ukraine is very likely entirely unacceptable to Putin, and he will risk everything to secure victory. 

If Mearsheimer's right, Ukraine will inevitably be crushed and the US & NATO discredited, but we will not be facing WWIII or further Russian aggression. 

If he's wrong... 

As they say, pick your poison.

"Russia will not stop; Russia can only BE stopped."
Krišjānis Kariņš, Latvian Foreign Minister